Impacts of climate change in Somalia
A Personal Reflection
As a Somali student of Agriculture and Environmental Science at Somali National University, drought is not something I study only in textbooks. In lectures, we examine evapotranspiration rates, soil moisture deficits, and climate projections. Outside the classroom, I hear different questions.
“How long will this well last?”
“Should we move the herd again?”
“Is there work in the city?”
Rural families do not debate whether climate change is real. They calculate survival.
At the Faculty of Agriculture and Environmental Science, we are trained to see drought as interconnected systems of soil systems, soil, water, crops, markets, health, and governance.
What becomes clear is that resilience does not collapse suddenly. It unravels slowly, season after season, when recovery becomes impossible.
For my generation, climate resilience in Somalia is not about distant policy debates. It is about whether agriculture remains viable, whether displacement becomes permanent, and whether institutions can withstand repeated stress.
When Drought Stops Being a Season: Climate Change and the Slow Unravelling of Somalia
In discussions about climate change, Somalia is often introduced through a painful contradiction. The country contributes almost nothing to global greenhouse gas emissions — less than 0.03% of the global total according to its updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), yet it consistently ranks among the most climate-vulnerable nations in the world. (Federal Republic of Somalia, 2021).
But statistics alone do not explain what climate change means in Somalia.
To understand its real impact, we must look at one defining phenomenon: drought.
Drought in Somalia is no longer a temporary disruption between rainy seasons. It is becoming a recurring and long-term crisis.
From Climate Variability to Climate Crisis
Somalia has always lived with variability. The country’s arid to semi-arid climate depends heavily on two rainy seasons: the Gu (April–June) and the Deyr (October–December).
When the rains arrive on time, rural life stabilises because farmers can plant crops, pasture regenerates, and key water sources such as berkads and shallow wells are replenished. Livestock regain strength, milk production improves, and households earn income through local markets. In this way, the Gu and Deyr seasons underpin both food security and livelihoods.
During the dry seasons, communities cope through livestock mobility, water storage, savings from previous harvests, and support from extended family networks. However, when rainy seasons fail repeatedly, these coping systems weaken, leaving households with fewer options and a greater risk of displacement.
Between 2020 and 2023, Somalia experienced five consecutive rainy seasons in which rainfall was far below normal or failed to arrive. As a result, crops did not mature, pasture did not regenerate, and water sources were not replenished, resulting in the longest and most severe drought in at least four decades (WFP, 2023). By early 2026, the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) estimated that about 6.5 million people in Somalia were facing Crisis or worse levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3+), largely driven by drought-related crop and livestock losses.
The problem is not just the intensity of a single drought. It is repetition.
Recovery time is disappearing.
In my own family, the impact of repeated drought is deeply personal. My aunt, who had lived for nearly sixty years in a remote pastoral area of eastern Somalia, was forced in 2026 to leave the countryside and move to town. Years of poor rainfall led to the death of camels, goats, and sheep, while the surviving animals were too weak to sell at fair prices.
In the past, livestock from our region were regularly exported to markets in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Yemen, and Oman. Over the last two years, however, almost no animals were exported, leaving families without income. For us, drought was not just environmental loss — it meant the collapse of a livelihood built over generations.
What used to be episodic shocks “that people could recover from” are now compounding stressors. Drought has shifted from being a climatic event to becoming a chronic economic condition.
Livelihoods Under Pressure
Somalia’s economy remains deeply climate sensitive. Agriculture and livestock remain central to Somalia’s economy, with an estimated 70–80% of the population relying directly or indirectly on these sectors for their livelihoods (NEC, 2022; FAO). This dependence means that when rains fail, the impact quickly spreads beyond rural areas into markets, incomes, and national stability. Pastoralism is not just an economic activity.
Pastoralism in Somalia is more than an income source; it is a system of resilience rooted in community life. Livestock act as savings during crises, mobility allows herders to adapt to changing environmental conditions, and knowledge about land, water, and weather is passed across generations.
When rains fail:
Pastures dry.
Water sources shrink.
Livestock weaken and die.
Crop yields collapse.
Livestock loss is more than financial damage. For pastoral families, livestock act as savings because they can be sold in emergencies. They provide food through milk and meat, and strengthen social ties through exchanges and clan support. Around 60% of Somalis rely on livestock for their livelihoods. When drought wipes out herds, families lose food and income, making recovery difficult and increasing the risk of hunger.
Higher temperatures intensify this cycle. Climate risk assessments indicate that Somalia is likely to experience further warming in the coming decades, increasing evapotranspiration and drying soils more rapidly (PIK & adelphi, 2022).
Even when rainfall projections remain uncertain, rising heat alone can undermine agricultural stability.
Environmental stress in Somalia quickly becomes economic stress. When rains fail, crops are not planted or harvested, livestock weaken or die, and household incomes fall. Because much of the population depends on pastoralism and rain-fed agriculture, reduced rainfall leads to lower food production, shrinking livestock herds, rising prices, and widespread economic hardship in both rural and urban areas.
Water as a Political Question
Water scarcity in Somalia is not purely environmental — it is institutional.
The country depends heavily on the Jubba and Shabelle rivers, both originating outside its borders. This makes downstream water security partly dependent on rainfall and infrastructure decisions in neighbouring countries.
During past drought cycles, sections of the Shabelle River dried out entirely (PIK & Adelphi, 2022).
As water becomes scarcer:
Groundwater tables decline.
Water prices rise.
Local competition increases.
Institutional capacity is tested.
The National Economic Council notes that climate shocks unfold in a context of weak governance and limited public financing (NEC, 2022). As a result, when drought hits, support systems are often too weak or too slow, allowing environmental stress to turn into economic and humanitarian crises. Drought, therefore, amplifies existing governance challenges rather than creating new ones from scratch.
Somalia faces significant fiscal and institutional constraints that limit large-scale investment in water infrastructure such as deep boreholes and dams. As a result, rural water access often depends on donor-funded projects and international humanitarian support. In a country with vast territory and highly mobile pastoral communities, delivering consistent public services remains a major challenge.
Climate change does not automatically cause conflict, but it magnifies fragility.
When Survival Means Moving
Perhaps the most visible impact of drought is displacement.
Recent humanitarian reporting estimates millions of internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Somalia, many moving from rural areas to urban peripheries (Reuters, 2026). But in practice, it frequently transfers vulnerability rather than resolving it.
Access to basic water and sanitation services remains limited in many IDP and peri-urban settlements in Somalia (UNICEF, WASH Profile; World Bank). These infrastructure gaps increase vulnerability among displaced communities. In this way, drought relocates fragility from rural landscapes into urban spaces.
The human toll has been severe. Joint assessments by Somali authorities, WHO, and UNICEF estimated tens of thousands of drought-related excess deaths between 2022 and 2024, with young children disproportionately affected (WHO, 2023; UNICEF, 2025). These deaths reflect both the direct impacts of drought and limited health and social protection capacity.
Adaptation Beyond Emergency Response
Somalia has not ignored climate policy. The country has submitted its updated NDC and identifies adaptation as a national priority (Federal Republic of Somalia, 2021). The challenge lies in implementation.
Key adaptation priorities in Somalia include strengthening water governance to manage scarce river and groundwater resources more effectively, linking early warning systems to pre-financed humanitarian response. Action is taken before crisis peaks, promoting climate-smart agriculture to improve yields under variable rainfall, restoring degraded rangelands, and investing in urban resilience planning.
Yet financing remains limited and often short-term (NEC, 2022). When food assistance, cash transfers, and water trucking programmes are delayed or underfunded, households lose critical support and are forced to sell assets or migrate, weakening their ability to recover from future shocks.
From Reaction to Structural Resilience
Drought in Somalia reveals the deeper challenge of climate change: not just environmental volatility, but structural vulnerability.
It affects food security, water governance, displacement dynamics, and public health simultaneously. It exposes a profound imbalance: countries like Somalia contribute almost nothing to global emissions, yet they bear some of the most severe climate impacts — from crop failure and livestock loss to displacement and food insecurity.
Somalia’s crisis is not caused by its own carbon footprint. Yet its recovery will depend on both domestic reform and meaningful international climate finance.
Drought has changed the rules.
The question is whether governance, financing, and global solidarity will change with it.
References
Federal Republic of Somalia. (2021). Updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC).
National Economic Council (NEC). (2022). Climate Change Adaptation and Building Human Resilience in Somalia.
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) & adelphi. (2022). Climate Risk Profile: Somalia.
Somali National University. (2023). *Strategic Plan 2030: Ecological environment and climate hazards.* Retrieved from https://www.universityofsomalia.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/SNU-Strategy-Plan-2030.-1-1.pdf
Reuters. (2026). 6.5 million people in Somalia face acute hunger due to drought.
World Food Programme (WFP). (2023). Horn of Africa hunger crisis update.
World Health Organization (WHO). (2023). Drought-related excess deaths in Somalia.
Bio:
Muhsin Said Yusuf is an Agriculture and Environmental Science student at Somali National University in Mogadishu. He also studies Computer Science at the University of the People and Cybersecurity at the University of Maryland Global Campus (UMGC). His interests focus on climate resilience, food security, and sustainable development in fragile contexts. He serves as Head of the Environment and Sustainable Development Committee at the Somali Scouts Association and is passionate about youth-led climate action in Somalia.
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/muhsin-s-yusuf-8761a5294/